Overview

Housing Starts
• Ontario’s housing starts will slow, reaching 58,250 units, but owing to economic uncertainty, they will range between 50,000 to 60,000 units this year before staging a modest pick-up in 2010
• Sluggish demand for big ticket items suggests single detached housing will slow most
• Stronger demand for inexpensive housing along with tighter rental markets suggests apartment construction will hold up better
• New home construction will moderate and remain below demographic requirements primarily due to a slowing economy

Resale

• Ontario existing home sales will slow reaching 144,0001 units,
• Improved affordability and stronger job growth will boost sales in 2010
• Sales over 2009/10 will move in line with levels earlier in the decade

Resale Prices

• More accommodating conditions for buyers suggests prices will slow by 3.5 per cent this year and 1 per cent in 2010
• Slowing income growth and higher demand for inexpensive housing are factors weighing on average prices

Economic Forecasts

• Ontario economy will contract in 2009 before a modest pickup in 2010
• Exports will be the biggest drag on growth this year as US consumers spend less
• Cautious consumer optimism will temper the recovery in 2010 as Ontario‘s jobless rate moves higher vis-à-vis recent year levels
• A narrowing growth gap between the west and central Canada will temper the net outflow of Ontarians headed west

Housing Forecasts

• Urban markets tied to auto production and US trade which include Oshawa, Windsor and St. Catharines-Niagara, will see only modest recovery in 2010
• Hamilton, Thunder Bay, Ottawa and Kitchener new home markets will enjoy greater starts stability as these centers represent the tightest Ontario resale markets
• Demand shift to more modestly priced ownership and rental housing will support high density construction activity in Toronto, Ottawa and Barrie.